HERMES / CASE HERMES-20260509-1558

CASE FILE — HERMES-20260509-1558

WHO
Witnesses: no
Feeling: fine
WHAT
Description: [First seen] Brilliant orange sight [What it did] Light change [How it ended] Isjhzjs
Shape: — · Color: — · Light character: —
Intensity: — · Duration: under_10s · Behavior: —
WHEN
Date: 2026-05-09 15:58
Submitted (UTC): 2026-05-09T12:01:39.649977
WHERE
Location: Bayah, Samail Province, Ad Dakhiliyah Governorate, Oman
Lat/Lon: 23.016164, 58.021861 (precision: coarse)
Facing: —° · Elevation angle: 30.0° · Elevation: — ft
WHY
Weather: Clear · 104.5°F · wind 24.4 mph 20.6 · humidity 7.91%
Satellites overhead: 7 (['CUBEBUG 1', 'UNISAT 6', 'ANTELSAT', "ES'HAIL 2 (QO-100)", 'ELEKTRO-L 3', 'AVUM R/B', 'SKIF-D'])
Aircraft overhead: — (Live data only)
HOW
Camera: — · IR: — · Naked eye: yes
Intake schema version: v4

Observation

Date / Time2026-05-09 15:58
LocationBayah, Samail Province, Ad Dakhiliyah Governorate, Oman
Coordinates23.016164, 58.021861
Observer elevation0.0 ft
Facing (bearing)0
Elevation angle30.0

Description

Color
Shape
Intensity
Light character
Durationunder_10s
Witnessesno

Witness statement

[First seen] Brilliant orange sight [What it did] Light change [How it ended] Isjhzjs

3D scene reconstruction deterministic, post-submit, no AI interpretation

This is a Sitrec reconstruction of the witness's stated viewpoint at the stated time. Witness position, facing, elevation angle, terrain, sky bodies, and ADS-B aircraft are placed deterministically from case fields. The described object itself is NOT rendered (perception is not measurable pose). Composed 2026-05-16T03:48:13Z.

Open scene full-screen  ·  sitch md5: 330f831399db376f1fceebe5552bf363

Evidence Score

+0.13 Inconclusive score v0.14.0

The Evidence Score is +0.13 (Inconclusive). 4 rule(s) contributed non-zero weight, but the positive and negative signals roughly balance, leaving the case inconclusive.

CONTRIBUTION LEDGER (12 rules)
Rule Bucket Verdict Raw Applied Reason
WX-CLOUD-01 weather eliminated +0.100 +0.100 full
AC-DENSITY-01 aircraft eliminated +0.080 +0.080 full
SAT-OVER-01 satellites indeterminate — — informational
SAT-LOS-01 satellites no_data — — informational
CEL-AVAIL-00 celestial no_data — — informational
CORR-01 corroboration passed +0.050 +0.050 full
GEO-DIST-01 geometry indeterminate — — informational
GEO-WITNESS-01 geometry flagged -0.100 -0.100 full
PROV-01 provenance no_data — — informational
FP-01 fingerprint no_data — — informational
EXC-01 exclusion no_data — — informational
AI-01 ai_signals no_data — — informational:ai_signals

Score range [-1, +1]. Negative = conventional explanations plausible; positive = conventional explanations collectively weakened. Score is informational only. It does not identify or characterise the phenomenon. Score methodology →

Audit trail  methodology 0.16.0    generated 2026-09-11T22:52:04.591684Z

eliminated: 2 flagged: 1 indeterminate: 2 no data: 6
audit-hash: 9D1521124E263A15

Each rule below shows its inputs, the data source queried, the result, and the verdict. Every rule has a stable ID so this case can be cited and replayed as the methodology evolves.

WEATHER

WX-CLOUD-01 v0.16.0

Cloud cover eliminates reflection/refraction

eliminated
Cloud cover was 1%. Clear sky makes cloud-based reflections or refractions an unlikely explanation for the sighting.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "observed_at": "2026-05-09 15:58",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Visual Crossing historical",
  "station_or_grid": "nearest-grid"
}
inputs
{
  "cloud_cover_pct": 0.7
}
result
{
  "clear_sky": true
}
confidence effect: +0.10

AIRCRAFT

AC-DENSITY-01 v0.16.0

Low local air traffic

eliminated
Only 0 aircraft were operating within 50 nm at report intake. Commercial traffic is not a strong candidate, though historical ADS-B backfill is still recommended for definitive exclusion.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "note": "ADS-B here is a live snapshot at report intake, not historical playback. Historical ADS-B backfill is planned (see changelog 0.5.0).",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "ADS-B live snapshot (50 nm radius, current)"
}
inputs
{
  "count": 0,
  "radius_nm": 50
}
result
{
  "aircraft_nearby": 0
}
confidence effect: +0.08

SATELLITES

SAT-OVER-01 v0.16.0

Satellites in wide overhead cone

indeterminate
7 catalogued objects were in the wide overhead cone at intake time. Without the observer's look-direction and elevation, this is an availability count -- not an elimination. A TLE-based exact-line-of-sight check is planned.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "note": "Live snapshot at report intake, not historical propagation. TLE-based historical reconstruction is a planned upgrade.",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "N2YO /above endpoint (0-70 degrees elevation, 18 category)"
}
inputs
{
  "elevation_band_deg": "0-70"
}
result
{
  "count": 7,
  "notable_sample": [
    "CUBEBUG 1",
    "UNISAT 6",
    "ANTELSAT",
    "ES\u0027HAIL 2 (QO-100)",
    "ELEKTRO-L 3",
    "AVUM R/B",
    "SKIF-D"
  ]
}
SAT-LOS-01 v0.16.0

Satellite line of sight (TLE-propagated)

no data
TLE cache stale (141.7 days old; max 7d)
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "note": "TLE age 3399.9h; catalog ?",
  "ok": false,
  "provider": "CelesTrak GP (stations + visual) via sgp4"
}
inputs
{
  "lat": 23.016164,
  "lon": 58.021861,
  "reported_az_deg": 0,
  "reported_el_deg": 30.0,
  "tolerances": null,
  "utc": "2026-05-09T15:58:00"
}
result
{
  "illumination": null,
  "match_count": null,
  "rule_hash": null,
  "satellites_above_horizon": null,
  "top_candidates": []
}

CELESTIAL BODIES

CEL-AVAIL-00 v0.16.0

Celestial computation availability

no data
Celestial computation did not run (missing or invalid timezone/timestamp). Moon, planet, and twilight checks were skipped.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "computed_at_utc": null,
  "ok": false,
  "provider": "ephem (PyEphem) local computation"
}
inputs
{
  "timezone": ""
}
result
{
  "ran": false
}

GEOMETRY

GEO-DIST-01 v0.16.0

Apparent-altitude ladder

indeterminate
For the reported elevation angle, Hermes computed the apparent object altitude at several candidate distances. Without an independent distance estimate, any single point on this ladder is plausible -- but the ladder as a whole shows what conventional explanations the geometry admits.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "trigonometric calc"
}
inputs
{
  "elevation_angle_deg": 30.0,
  "observer_elev_ft": 0.0
}
result
{
  "distance_vs_altitude_table": [
    {
      "altitude_ft": 9471,
      "distance_km": 5
    },
    {
      "altitude_ft": 18943,
      "distance_km": 10
    },
    {
      "altitude_ft": 47357,
      "distance_km": 25
    },
    {
      "altitude_ft": 94714,
      "distance_km": 50
    },
    {
      "altitude_ft": 189429,
      "distance_km": 100
    }
  ]
}
GEO-WITNESS-01 v0.16.0

Witness standpoint geometry

flagged
Witness standpoint geometry is absent and no alternative anchor is present (no EXIF GPS, no corroborating witness, no calibrated camera). Confidence effect: -10%. The optional map step on the intake form can provide this anchor.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "witness report + Hermes case data"
}
inputs
{
  "camera_calibrated": false,
  "corroborated": false,
  "exif_gps_present": false,
  "witness_geometry_present": false
}
result
{
  "excuses": {
    "camera_calibrated": false,
    "corroborated": false,
    "exif_gps": false
  },
  "geometry_present": false
}
confidence effect: -0.10

CORROBORATION

CORR-01 v0.16.0

Corroboration cluster (spatio-temporal)

passed
No corroborating reports within 30 min and 50 km (scanned 11 cases).
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "note": "scanned 11 cases",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes native case store"
}
inputs
{
  "lat": 23.016164,
  "lon": 58.021861,
  "tolerances": {
    "radius_km": 50.0,
    "window_min": 30
  },
  "when_utc": "2026-05-09T15:58:00"
}
result
{
  "cluster_size": 0,
  "matches": [],
  "nearest_km": null,
  "nearest_minutes": null,
  "rule_hash": "2A97B8BAE3E546AF"
}
confidence effect: +0.05

FILE PROVENANCE

PROV-01 v0.16.0

Provenance record present

no data
No provenance record is attached to this case. Either no media was uploaded, or this case was submitted before the v0.10.0 provenance pipeline was active. Backfill is a planned future operation.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes media pipeline"
}
inputs
{
  "provenance_present": false
}
result
{
  "present": false
}

PERCEPTUAL FINGERPRINTING

FP-01 v0.16.0

Fingerprint recorded

no data
No perceptual fingerprint is attached to this case. Either no media was uploaded, or this case was submitted before the v0.11.0 fingerprint pipeline was active. Backfill is a planned operator-triggered task.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes fingerprint pipeline"
}
inputs
{
  "fingerprint_present": false
}
result
{
  "present": false
}

KNOWN-OBJECT EXCLUSION

EXC-01 v0.16.0

Exclusion engine ran

no data
The exclusion engine has not run on this case. Either no media was uploaded, or the case lacks sufficient grounding (usable timestamp and location). See EXC-01 preconditions for details.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes exclusion engine"
}
inputs
{
  "exclusion_results_present": false
}
result
{
  "ran": false,
  "reason": "no exclusion_results on case"
}

AI-PROVENANCE SIGNALS

AI-01 v0.16.0

AI-provenance signal panel ran

no data
The AI-provenance signal panel has not run on this case. Either no media has been uploaded or provenance extraction failed.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes AI-provenance pipeline"
}
inputs
{
  "ai_signals_present": false
}
result
{
  "ran": false,
  "reason": "no ai_signals on provenance record"
}