{"audit":{"audit_hash":"D58529A07E1EBFA5","case_id":"HERMES-20260509-1558","confidence_effect_sum":0.13,"counts":{"eliminated":2,"flagged":1,"indeterminate":2,"no_data":6,"passed":1},"disclaimers":["This audit trail lists each rule Hermes evaluated, the data it used, and the outcome. It is not a judgement about the underlying phenomenon.","Hermes is an analysis and triage platform. Confidence scores describe how thoroughly a case has been checked against conventional explanations, not how likely a given interpretation is to be true.","Live satellite and aircraft snapshots reflect intake time, not the exact sighting moment. Historical backfill (TLE propagation, historical ADS-B) is a pending methodology upgrade.","Witness-reported kinematics (hovering, acceleration, instantaneous turns) are preserved verbatim but not treated as instrumented measurements."],"generated_at_utc":"2026-09-11T23:53:47.369676Z","methodology_version":"0.16.0","rules":[{"category":"weather","confidence_effect":0.1,"data_source":{"observed_at":"2026-05-09 15:58","ok":true,"provider":"Visual Crossing historical","station_or_grid":"nearest-grid"},"inputs":{"cloud_cover_pct":0.7},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Cloud cover eliminates reflection/refraction","plain_language":"Cloud cover was 1%. Clear sky makes cloud-based reflections or refractions an unlikely explanation for the sighting.","references":[],"result":{"clear_sky":true},"rule_id":"WX-CLOUD-01","verdict":"eliminated"},{"category":"aircraft","confidence_effect":0.08,"data_source":{"note":"ADS-B here is a live snapshot at report intake, not historical playback. Historical ADS-B backfill is planned (see changelog 0.5.0).","ok":true,"provider":"ADS-B live snapshot (50 nm radius, current)"},"inputs":{"count":0,"radius_nm":50},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Low local air traffic","plain_language":"Only 0 aircraft were operating within 50 nm at report intake. Commercial traffic is not a strong candidate, though historical ADS-B backfill is still recommended for definitive exclusion.","references":[],"result":{"aircraft_nearby":0},"rule_id":"AC-DENSITY-01","verdict":"eliminated"},{"category":"satellites","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"note":"Live snapshot at report intake, not historical propagation. TLE-based historical reconstruction is a planned upgrade.","ok":true,"provider":"N2YO /above endpoint (0-70 degrees elevation, 18 category)"},"inputs":{"elevation_band_deg":"0-70"},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Satellites in wide overhead cone","plain_language":"7 catalogued objects were in the wide overhead cone at intake time. Without the observer's look-direction and elevation, this is an availability count -- not an elimination. A TLE-based exact-line-of-sight check is planned.","references":[],"result":{"count":7,"notable_sample":["CUBEBUG 1","UNISAT 6","ANTELSAT","ES'HAIL 2 (QO-100)","ELEKTRO-L 3","AVUM R/B","SKIF-D"]},"rule_id":"SAT-OVER-01","verdict":"indeterminate"},{"category":"satellites","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"note":"TLE age 3400.9h; catalog ?","ok":false,"provider":"CelesTrak GP (stations + visual) via sgp4"},"inputs":{"lat":23.016164,"lon":58.021861,"reported_az_deg":0,"reported_el_deg":30.0,"tolerances":null,"utc":"2026-05-09T15:58:00"},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Satellite line of sight (TLE-propagated)","plain_language":"TLE cache stale (141.7 days old; max 7d)","references":[],"result":{"illumination":null,"match_count":null,"rule_hash":null,"satellites_above_horizon":null,"top_candidates":[]},"rule_id":"SAT-LOS-01","verdict":"no_data"},{"category":"celestial","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"computed_at_utc":null,"ok":false,"provider":"ephem (PyEphem) local computation"},"inputs":{"timezone":""},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Celestial computation availability","plain_language":"Celestial computation did not run (missing or invalid timezone/timestamp). Moon, planet, and twilight checks were skipped.","references":[],"result":{"ran":false},"rule_id":"CEL-AVAIL-00","verdict":"no_data"},{"category":"corroboration","confidence_effect":0.05,"data_source":{"note":"scanned 11 cases","ok":true,"provider":"Hermes native case store"},"inputs":{"lat":23.016164,"lon":58.021861,"tolerances":{"radius_km":50.0,"window_min":30},"when_utc":"2026-05-09T15:58:00"},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Corroboration cluster (spatio-temporal)","plain_language":"No corroborating reports within 30 min and 50 km (scanned 11 cases).","references":[],"result":{"cluster_size":0,"matches":[],"nearest_km":null,"nearest_minutes":null,"rule_hash":"2A97B8BAE3E546AF"},"rule_id":"CORR-01","verdict":"passed"},{"category":"geometry","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"trigonometric calc"},"inputs":{"elevation_angle_deg":30.0,"observer_elev_ft":0.0},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Apparent-altitude ladder","plain_language":"For the reported elevation angle, Hermes computed the apparent object altitude at several candidate distances. Without an independent distance estimate, any single point on this ladder is plausible -- but the ladder as a whole shows what conventional explanations the geometry admits.","references":[],"result":{"distance_vs_altitude_table":[{"altitude_ft":9471,"distance_km":5},{"altitude_ft":18943,"distance_km":10},{"altitude_ft":47357,"distance_km":25},{"altitude_ft":94714,"distance_km":50},{"altitude_ft":189429,"distance_km":100}]},"rule_id":"GEO-DIST-01","verdict":"indeterminate"},{"category":"geometry","confidence_effect":-0.1,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"witness report + Hermes case data"},"inputs":{"camera_calibrated":false,"corroborated":false,"exif_gps_present":false,"witness_geometry_present":false},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Witness standpoint geometry","plain_language":"Witness standpoint geometry is absent and no alternative anchor is present (no EXIF GPS, no corroborating witness, no calibrated camera). Confidence effect: -10%. The optional map step on the intake form can provide this anchor.","references":[],"result":{"excuses":{"camera_calibrated":false,"corroborated":false,"exif_gps":false},"geometry_present":false},"rule_id":"GEO-WITNESS-01","verdict":"flagged"},{"category":"provenance","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"Hermes media pipeline"},"inputs":{"provenance_present":false},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Provenance record present","plain_language":"No provenance record is attached to this case. Either no media was uploaded, or this case was submitted before the v0.10.0 provenance pipeline was active. Backfill is a planned future operation.","references":[],"result":{"present":false},"rule_id":"PROV-01","verdict":"no_data"},{"category":"fingerprint","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"Hermes fingerprint pipeline"},"inputs":{"fingerprint_present":false},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Fingerprint recorded","plain_language":"No perceptual fingerprint is attached to this case. Either no media was uploaded, or this case was submitted before the v0.11.0 fingerprint pipeline was active. Backfill is a planned operator-triggered task.","references":[],"result":{"present":false},"rule_id":"FP-01","verdict":"no_data"},{"category":"exclusion","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"Hermes exclusion engine"},"inputs":{"exclusion_results_present":false},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Exclusion engine ran","plain_language":"The exclusion engine has not run on this case. Either no media was uploaded, or the case lacks sufficient grounding (usable timestamp and location). See EXC-01 preconditions for details.","references":[],"result":{"ran":false,"reason":"no exclusion_results on case"},"rule_id":"EXC-01","verdict":"no_data"},{"category":"ai_signals","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"Hermes AI-provenance pipeline"},"inputs":{"ai_signals_present":false},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"AI-provenance signal panel ran","plain_language":"The AI-provenance signal panel has not run on this case. Either no media has been uploaded or provenance extraction failed.","references":[],"result":{"ran":false,"reason":"no ai_signals on provenance record"},"rule_id":"AI-01","verdict":"no_data"}]},"case_id":"HERMES-20260509-1558","evidence_score":{"anomalous_pct":56.5,"contributions":[{"applied_effect":0.1,"bucket":"weather","raw_effect":0.1,"reason":"full","rule_id":"WX-CLOUD-01","verdict":"eliminated"},{"applied_effect":0.08,"bucket":"aircraft","raw_effect":0.08,"reason":"full","rule_id":"AC-DENSITY-01","verdict":"eliminated"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"satellites","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"SAT-OVER-01","verdict":"indeterminate"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"satellites","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"SAT-LOS-01","verdict":"no_data"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"celestial","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"CEL-AVAIL-00","verdict":"no_data"},{"applied_effect":0.05,"bucket":"corroboration","raw_effect":0.05,"reason":"full","rule_id":"CORR-01","verdict":"passed"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"geometry","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"GEO-DIST-01","verdict":"indeterminate"},{"applied_effect":-0.1,"bucket":"geometry","raw_effect":-0.1,"reason":"full","rule_id":"GEO-WITNESS-01","verdict":"flagged"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"provenance","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"PROV-01","verdict":"no_data"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"fingerprint","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"FP-01","verdict":"no_data"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"exclusion","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"EXC-01","verdict":"no_data"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"ai_signals","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational:ai_signals","rule_id":"AI-01","verdict":"no_data"}],"excluded":[],"narrative":"The Evidence Score is +0.13 (Inconclusive).  4 rule(s) contributed non-zero weight, but the positive and negative signals roughly balance, leaving the case inconclusive.","qualifier":"Inconclusive","score":0.13,"score_version":"0.14.0"}}