HERMES / CASE HERMES-20250812-2233

CASE FILE — HERMES-20250812-2233

WHO
Witnesses: no
Feeling: fine
WHAT
Description: [First seen] So, I had been seeing something flying thru the trees from about 9 pm, I got video of that, and I’ll add it to another sighting, so at 3:25 am, after trying to get a good video of this light, my ring camera alerts. I didn’t have the saved video feature at the time, so I screen recorded the object using live view. I ran outside too, with my phone, then turned on phone camera and the object was silent, random white flashes, I swear it knew I was there, like it was watching me back. As it went west, another one came from the woods, they went towards each other, flashed at each other , then went opposite directions [What it did] At first, it came towards me and towards my house as I could see in the video footage as it leads to the right and the footage I had just come outside since you had left the screen of view from the live camera, I stopped screen recording turned on my phone camera and I recorded it heading west another one came from the same woods, but further west of my house they seem to like communicate with each other. I should know if they were both completely silent, did not make a sound. They were not very high in the sky at all, and one went West Southwest, and the other went completely north after he had gone west. [How it ended] After the two of the craft seemed to communicate, one went west Southwest. The other just went north and it flew away out of sight again, completely silent, and the light flashing was just a white light and it was not a consistent flashing pattern. It was random and brightness luminosity, which is nothing I had ever seen on an airplane.
Shape: — · Color: — · Light character: —
Intensity: — · Duration: 1_5m · Behavior: —
WHEN
Date: 2025-08-12 22:33 HST
Submitted (UTC): 2026-04-24T02:11:29.989476
WHERE
Location: 25273, Moriah Lane, Bonita Isles, Bonita Springs, Lee County, Florida, 34135, United States
Lat/Lon: 26.375595, -81.799318 (precision: exact)
Facing: 214.0° · Elevation angle: 48.0° · Elevation: — ft
WHY
Weather: Rain, Partially cloudy · 80.5°F · wind 7.7 mph 95.0 · humidity 82.33%
Satellites overhead: 5 (['ELEKTRO-L', 'ESTCUBE 1', 'AVUM R/B', 'MONITOR-2', 'HOD-HOD-1A'])
Aircraft overhead: 9 (Live data only)
HOW
Camera: — · IR: — · Naked eye: yes
Intake schema version: v2

Observation

Date / Time2025-08-12 22:33 HST
Location25273, Moriah Lane, Bonita Isles, Bonita Springs, Lee County, Florida, 34135, United States
Coordinates26.375595, -81.799318
Observer elevation0.0 ft
Facing (bearing)214.0
Elevation angle48.0

Description

Color
Shape
Intensity
Light character
Duration1_5m
Witnessesno

Witness statement

[First seen] So, I had been seeing something flying thru the trees from about 9 pm, I got video of that, and I’ll add it to another sighting, so at 3:25 am, after trying to get a good video of this light, my ring camera alerts. I didn’t have the saved video feature at the time, so I screen recorded the object using live view. I ran outside too, with my phone, then turned on phone camera and the object was silent, random white flashes, I swear it knew I was there, like it was watching me back. As it went west, another one came from the woods, they went towards each other, flashed at each other , then went opposite directions [What it did] At first, it came towards me and towards my house as I could see in the video footage as it leads to the right and the footage I had just come outside since you had left the screen of view from the live camera, I stopped screen recording turned on my phone camera and I recorded it heading west another one came from the same woods, but further west of my house they seem to like communicate with each other. I should know if they were both completely silent, did not make a sound. They were not very high in the sky at all, and one went West Southwest, and the other went completely north after he had gone west. [How it ended] After the two of the craft seemed to communicate, one went west Southwest. The other just went north and it flew away out of sight again, completely silent, and the light flashing was just a white light and it was not a consistent flashing pattern. It was random and brightness luminosity, which is nothing I had ever seen on an airplane.

3D scene reconstruction deterministic, post-submit, no AI interpretation

This is a Sitrec reconstruction of the witness's stated viewpoint at the stated time. Witness position, facing, elevation angle, terrain, sky bodies, and ADS-B aircraft are placed deterministically from case fields. The described object itself is NOT rendered (perception is not measurable pose). Composed 2026-05-16T03:48:13Z.

Open scene full-screen  ·  sitch md5: ee0928acf3475cf26fe882acf86ed8d4

Evidence Score

-0.12 Inconclusive score v0.14.0

The Evidence Score is -0.12 (Inconclusive). 4 rule(s) contributed non-zero weight, but the positive and negative signals roughly balance, leaving the case inconclusive.

CONTRIBUTION LEDGER (13 rules)
Rule Bucket Verdict Raw Applied Reason
WX-CLOUD-01 weather indeterminate — — informational
WX-WIND-01 weather eliminated +0.050 +0.050 full
AC-DENSITY-01 aircraft flagged -0.120 -0.120 full
SAT-OVER-01 satellites indeterminate — — informational
SAT-LOS-01 satellites no_data — — informational
CEL-AVAIL-00 celestial no_data — — informational
CORR-01 corroboration passed +0.050 +0.050 full
GEO-DIST-01 geometry indeterminate — — informational
GEO-WITNESS-01 geometry flagged -0.100 -0.100 full
PROV-01 provenance no_data — — informational
FP-01 fingerprint no_data — — informational
EXC-01 exclusion no_data — — informational
AI-01 ai_signals no_data — — informational:ai_signals

Score range [-1, +1]. Negative = conventional explanations plausible; positive = conventional explanations collectively weakened. Score is informational only. It does not identify or characterise the phenomenon. Score methodology →

Audit trail  methodology 0.16.0    generated 2026-06-09T06:09:58.468403Z

eliminated: 1 flagged: 2 indeterminate: 3 no data: 6
audit-hash: 893D03B20170FB77

Each rule below shows its inputs, the data source queried, the result, and the verdict. Every rule has a stable ID so this case can be cited and replayed as the methodology evolves.

WEATHER

WX-CLOUD-01 v0.16.0

Cloud cover ambiguous

indeterminate
Cloud cover was 46%. Partial cloud can either permit or prevent optical effects; treated as inconclusive.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "observed_at": "2025-08-12 22:33",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Visual Crossing historical",
  "station_or_grid": "nearest-grid"
}
inputs
{
  "cloud_cover_pct": 45.8
}
result
{
  "mixed": true
}
WX-WIND-01 v0.16.0

Low wind eliminates buoyancy drift

eliminated
Surface wind was 8 mph. Sky lanterns and free balloons drift visibly in wind above ~10 mph, so low wind makes buoyant-object explanations less persuasive unless the object was observed to drift.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "observed_at": "2025-08-12 22:33",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Visual Crossing historical",
  "station_or_grid": "nearest-grid"
}
inputs
{
  "wind_mph": 7.7
}
result
{
  "calm": true
}
confidence effect: +0.05

AIRCRAFT

AC-DENSITY-01 v0.16.0

High local air traffic

flagged
9 aircraft were operating within 50 nm at report intake. Commercial or general-aviation traffic is a plausible candidate and should be cross-referenced with historical ADS-B for the exact time.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "note": "ADS-B here is a live snapshot at report intake, not historical playback. Historical ADS-B backfill is planned (see changelog 0.5.0).",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "ADS-B live snapshot (50 nm radius, current)"
}
inputs
{
  "count": 9,
  "radius_nm": 50
}
result
{
  "aircraft_nearby": 9,
  "sample": [
    "MXY753@7725.0ft",
    "AAY518@18250.0ft",
    "NKS262@21000.0ft",
    "JBU900@23450.0ft",
    "AAL2206@18250.0ft",
    "JTL420@2875.0ft",
    "SWA3193@1050.0ft",
    "N409TP@1125.0ft",
    "AMX037@38975.0ft"
  ]
}
confidence effect: -0.12

SATELLITES

SAT-OVER-01 v0.16.0

Satellites in wide overhead cone

indeterminate
5 catalogued objects were in the wide overhead cone at intake time. Without the observer's look-direction and elevation, this is an availability count -- not an elimination. A TLE-based exact-line-of-sight check is planned.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "note": "Live snapshot at report intake, not historical propagation. TLE-based historical reconstruction is a planned upgrade.",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "N2YO /above endpoint (0-70 degrees elevation, 18 category)"
}
inputs
{
  "elevation_band_deg": "0-70"
}
result
{
  "count": 5,
  "notable_sample": [
    "ELEKTRO-L",
    "ESTCUBE 1",
    "AVUM R/B",
    "MONITOR-2",
    "HOD-HOD-1A"
  ]
}
SAT-LOS-01 v0.16.0

Satellite line of sight (TLE-propagated)

no data
TLE cache stale (47.0 days old; max 7d)
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "note": "TLE age 1127.2h; catalog ?",
  "ok": false,
  "provider": "CelesTrak GP (stations + visual) via sgp4"
}
inputs
{
  "lat": 26.375595,
  "lon": -81.799318,
  "reported_az_deg": 214.0,
  "reported_el_deg": 48.0,
  "tolerances": null,
  "utc": "2025-08-12T22:33:00"
}
result
{
  "illumination": null,
  "match_count": null,
  "rule_hash": null,
  "satellites_above_horizon": null,
  "top_candidates": []
}

CELESTIAL BODIES

CEL-AVAIL-00 v0.16.0

Celestial computation availability

no data
Celestial computation did not run (missing or invalid timezone/timestamp). Moon, planet, and twilight checks were skipped.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "computed_at_utc": null,
  "ok": false,
  "provider": "ephem (PyEphem) local computation"
}
inputs
{
  "timezone": "HST"
}
result
{
  "ran": false
}

GEOMETRY

GEO-DIST-01 v0.16.0

Apparent-altitude ladder

indeterminate
For the reported elevation angle, Hermes computed the apparent object altitude at several candidate distances. Without an independent distance estimate, any single point on this ladder is plausible -- but the ladder as a whole shows what conventional explanations the geometry admits.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "trigonometric calc"
}
inputs
{
  "elevation_angle_deg": 48.0,
  "observer_elev_ft": 0.0
}
result
{
  "distance_vs_altitude_table": [
    {
      "altitude_ft": 18220,
      "distance_km": 5
    },
    {
      "altitude_ft": 36439,
      "distance_km": 10
    },
    {
      "altitude_ft": 91098,
      "distance_km": 25
    },
    {
      "altitude_ft": 182196,
      "distance_km": 50
    },
    {
      "altitude_ft": 364392,
      "distance_km": 100
    }
  ]
}
GEO-WITNESS-01 v0.16.0

Witness standpoint geometry

flagged
Witness standpoint geometry is absent and no alternative anchor is present (no EXIF GPS, no corroborating witness, no calibrated camera). Confidence effect: -10%. The optional map step on the intake form can provide this anchor.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "witness report + Hermes case data"
}
inputs
{
  "camera_calibrated": false,
  "corroborated": false,
  "exif_gps_present": false,
  "witness_geometry_present": false
}
result
{
  "excuses": {
    "camera_calibrated": false,
    "corroborated": false,
    "exif_gps": false
  },
  "geometry_present": false
}
confidence effect: -0.10

CORROBORATION

CORR-01 v0.16.0

Corroboration cluster (spatio-temporal)

passed
No corroborating reports within 30 min and 50 km (scanned 11 cases).
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "note": "scanned 11 cases",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes native case store"
}
inputs
{
  "lat": 26.375595,
  "lon": -81.799318,
  "tolerances": {
    "radius_km": 50.0,
    "window_min": 30
  },
  "when_utc": "2025-08-12T22:33:00"
}
result
{
  "cluster_size": 0,
  "matches": [],
  "nearest_km": null,
  "nearest_minutes": null,
  "rule_hash": "6CE26CF4BFC3E375"
}
confidence effect: +0.05

FILE PROVENANCE

PROV-01 v0.16.0

Provenance record present

no data
No provenance record is attached to this case. Either no media was uploaded, or this case was submitted before the v0.10.0 provenance pipeline was active. Backfill is a planned future operation.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes media pipeline"
}
inputs
{
  "provenance_present": false
}
result
{
  "present": false
}

PERCEPTUAL FINGERPRINTING

FP-01 v0.16.0

Fingerprint recorded

no data
No perceptual fingerprint is attached to this case. Either no media was uploaded, or this case was submitted before the v0.11.0 fingerprint pipeline was active. Backfill is a planned operator-triggered task.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes fingerprint pipeline"
}
inputs
{
  "fingerprint_present": false
}
result
{
  "present": false
}

KNOWN-OBJECT EXCLUSION

EXC-01 v0.16.0

Exclusion engine ran

no data
The exclusion engine has not run on this case. Either no media was uploaded, or the case lacks sufficient grounding (usable timestamp and location). See EXC-01 preconditions for details.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes exclusion engine"
}
inputs
{
  "exclusion_results_present": false
}
result
{
  "ran": false,
  "reason": "no exclusion_results on case"
}

AI-PROVENANCE SIGNALS

AI-01 v0.16.0

AI-provenance signal panel ran

no data
The AI-provenance signal panel has not run on this case. Either no media has been uploaded or provenance extraction failed.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes AI-provenance pipeline"
}
inputs
{
  "ai_signals_present": false
}
result
{
  "ran": false,
  "reason": "no ai_signals on provenance record"
}