{"audit":{"audit_hash":"AB0F5706F1D0D36B","case_id":"HERMES-20250812-2233","confidence_effect_sum":-0.12,"counts":{"eliminated":1,"flagged":2,"indeterminate":3,"no_data":6,"passed":1},"disclaimers":["This audit trail lists each rule Hermes evaluated, the data it used, and the outcome. It is not a judgement about the underlying phenomenon.","Hermes is an analysis and triage platform. Confidence scores describe how thoroughly a case has been checked against conventional explanations, not how likely a given interpretation is to be true.","Live satellite and aircraft snapshots reflect intake time, not the exact sighting moment. Historical backfill (TLE propagation, historical ADS-B) is a pending methodology upgrade.","Witness-reported kinematics (hovering, acceleration, instantaneous turns) are preserved verbatim but not treated as instrumented measurements."],"generated_at_utc":"2026-06-09T07:33:45.680543Z","methodology_version":"0.16.0","rules":[{"category":"weather","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"observed_at":"2025-08-12 22:33","ok":true,"provider":"Visual Crossing historical","station_or_grid":"nearest-grid"},"inputs":{"cloud_cover_pct":45.8},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Cloud cover ambiguous","plain_language":"Cloud cover was 46%. Partial cloud can either permit or prevent optical effects; treated as inconclusive.","references":[],"result":{"mixed":true},"rule_id":"WX-CLOUD-01","verdict":"indeterminate"},{"category":"weather","confidence_effect":0.05,"data_source":{"observed_at":"2025-08-12 22:33","ok":true,"provider":"Visual Crossing historical","station_or_grid":"nearest-grid"},"inputs":{"wind_mph":7.7},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Low wind eliminates buoyancy drift","plain_language":"Surface wind was 8 mph. Sky lanterns and free balloons drift visibly in wind above ~10 mph, so low wind makes buoyant-object explanations less persuasive unless the object was observed to drift.","references":[],"result":{"calm":true},"rule_id":"WX-WIND-01","verdict":"eliminated"},{"category":"aircraft","confidence_effect":-0.12,"data_source":{"note":"ADS-B here is a live snapshot at report intake, not historical playback. Historical ADS-B backfill is planned (see changelog 0.5.0).","ok":true,"provider":"ADS-B live snapshot (50 nm radius, current)"},"inputs":{"count":9,"radius_nm":50},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"High local air traffic","plain_language":"9 aircraft were operating within 50 nm at report intake. Commercial or general-aviation traffic is a plausible candidate and should be cross-referenced with historical ADS-B for the exact time.","references":[],"result":{"aircraft_nearby":9,"sample":["MXY753@7725.0ft","AAY518@18250.0ft","NKS262@21000.0ft","JBU900@23450.0ft","AAL2206@18250.0ft","JTL420@2875.0ft","SWA3193@1050.0ft","N409TP@1125.0ft","AMX037@38975.0ft"]},"rule_id":"AC-DENSITY-01","verdict":"flagged"},{"category":"satellites","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"note":"Live snapshot at report intake, not historical propagation. TLE-based historical reconstruction is a planned upgrade.","ok":true,"provider":"N2YO /above endpoint (0-70 degrees elevation, 18 category)"},"inputs":{"elevation_band_deg":"0-70"},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Satellites in wide overhead cone","plain_language":"5 catalogued objects were in the wide overhead cone at intake time. Without the observer's look-direction and elevation, this is an availability count -- not an elimination. A TLE-based exact-line-of-sight check is planned.","references":[],"result":{"count":5,"notable_sample":["ELEKTRO-L","ESTCUBE 1","AVUM R/B","MONITOR-2","HOD-HOD-1A"]},"rule_id":"SAT-OVER-01","verdict":"indeterminate"},{"category":"satellites","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"note":"TLE age 1128.6h; catalog ?","ok":false,"provider":"CelesTrak GP (stations + visual) via sgp4"},"inputs":{"lat":26.375595,"lon":-81.799318,"reported_az_deg":214.0,"reported_el_deg":48.0,"tolerances":null,"utc":"2025-08-12T22:33:00"},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Satellite line of sight (TLE-propagated)","plain_language":"TLE cache stale (47.0 days old; max 7d)","references":[],"result":{"illumination":null,"match_count":null,"rule_hash":null,"satellites_above_horizon":null,"top_candidates":[]},"rule_id":"SAT-LOS-01","verdict":"no_data"},{"category":"celestial","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"computed_at_utc":null,"ok":false,"provider":"ephem (PyEphem) local computation"},"inputs":{"timezone":"HST"},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Celestial computation availability","plain_language":"Celestial computation did not run (missing or invalid timezone/timestamp). Moon, planet, and twilight checks were skipped.","references":[],"result":{"ran":false},"rule_id":"CEL-AVAIL-00","verdict":"no_data"},{"category":"corroboration","confidence_effect":0.05,"data_source":{"note":"scanned 11 cases","ok":true,"provider":"Hermes native case store"},"inputs":{"lat":26.375595,"lon":-81.799318,"tolerances":{"radius_km":50.0,"window_min":30},"when_utc":"2025-08-12T22:33:00"},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Corroboration cluster (spatio-temporal)","plain_language":"No corroborating reports within 30 min and 50 km (scanned 11 cases).","references":[],"result":{"cluster_size":0,"matches":[],"nearest_km":null,"nearest_minutes":null,"rule_hash":"6CE26CF4BFC3E375"},"rule_id":"CORR-01","verdict":"passed"},{"category":"geometry","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"trigonometric calc"},"inputs":{"elevation_angle_deg":48.0,"observer_elev_ft":0.0},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Apparent-altitude ladder","plain_language":"For the reported elevation angle, Hermes computed the apparent object altitude at several candidate distances. Without an independent distance estimate, any single point on this ladder is plausible -- but the ladder as a whole shows what conventional explanations the geometry admits.","references":[],"result":{"distance_vs_altitude_table":[{"altitude_ft":18220,"distance_km":5},{"altitude_ft":36439,"distance_km":10},{"altitude_ft":91098,"distance_km":25},{"altitude_ft":182196,"distance_km":50},{"altitude_ft":364392,"distance_km":100}]},"rule_id":"GEO-DIST-01","verdict":"indeterminate"},{"category":"geometry","confidence_effect":-0.1,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"witness report + Hermes case data"},"inputs":{"camera_calibrated":false,"corroborated":false,"exif_gps_present":false,"witness_geometry_present":false},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Witness standpoint geometry","plain_language":"Witness standpoint geometry is absent and no alternative anchor is present (no EXIF GPS, no corroborating witness, no calibrated camera). Confidence effect: -10%. The optional map step on the intake form can provide this anchor.","references":[],"result":{"excuses":{"camera_calibrated":false,"corroborated":false,"exif_gps":false},"geometry_present":false},"rule_id":"GEO-WITNESS-01","verdict":"flagged"},{"category":"provenance","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"Hermes media pipeline"},"inputs":{"provenance_present":false},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Provenance record present","plain_language":"No provenance record is attached to this case. Either no media was uploaded, or this case was submitted before the v0.10.0 provenance pipeline was active. Backfill is a planned future operation.","references":[],"result":{"present":false},"rule_id":"PROV-01","verdict":"no_data"},{"category":"fingerprint","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"Hermes fingerprint pipeline"},"inputs":{"fingerprint_present":false},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Fingerprint recorded","plain_language":"No perceptual fingerprint is attached to this case. Either no media was uploaded, or this case was submitted before the v0.11.0 fingerprint pipeline was active. Backfill is a planned operator-triggered task.","references":[],"result":{"present":false},"rule_id":"FP-01","verdict":"no_data"},{"category":"exclusion","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"Hermes exclusion engine"},"inputs":{"exclusion_results_present":false},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Exclusion engine ran","plain_language":"The exclusion engine has not run on this case. Either no media was uploaded, or the case lacks sufficient grounding (usable timestamp and location). See EXC-01 preconditions for details.","references":[],"result":{"ran":false,"reason":"no exclusion_results on case"},"rule_id":"EXC-01","verdict":"no_data"},{"category":"ai_signals","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"Hermes AI-provenance pipeline"},"inputs":{"ai_signals_present":false},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"AI-provenance signal panel ran","plain_language":"The AI-provenance signal panel has not run on this case. Either no media has been uploaded or provenance extraction failed.","references":[],"result":{"ran":false,"reason":"no ai_signals on provenance record"},"rule_id":"AI-01","verdict":"no_data"}]},"case_id":"HERMES-20250812-2233","evidence_score":{"anomalous_pct":44.0,"contributions":[{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"weather","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"WX-CLOUD-01","verdict":"indeterminate"},{"applied_effect":0.05,"bucket":"weather","raw_effect":0.05,"reason":"full","rule_id":"WX-WIND-01","verdict":"eliminated"},{"applied_effect":-0.12,"bucket":"aircraft","raw_effect":-0.12,"reason":"full","rule_id":"AC-DENSITY-01","verdict":"flagged"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"satellites","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"SAT-OVER-01","verdict":"indeterminate"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"satellites","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"SAT-LOS-01","verdict":"no_data"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"celestial","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"CEL-AVAIL-00","verdict":"no_data"},{"applied_effect":0.05,"bucket":"corroboration","raw_effect":0.05,"reason":"full","rule_id":"CORR-01","verdict":"passed"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"geometry","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"GEO-DIST-01","verdict":"indeterminate"},{"applied_effect":-0.1,"bucket":"geometry","raw_effect":-0.1,"reason":"full","rule_id":"GEO-WITNESS-01","verdict":"flagged"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"provenance","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"PROV-01","verdict":"no_data"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"fingerprint","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"FP-01","verdict":"no_data"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"exclusion","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"EXC-01","verdict":"no_data"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"ai_signals","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational:ai_signals","rule_id":"AI-01","verdict":"no_data"}],"excluded":[],"narrative":"The Evidence Score is -0.12 (Inconclusive).  4 rule(s) contributed non-zero weight, but the positive and negative signals roughly balance, leaving the case inconclusive.","qualifier":"Inconclusive","score":-0.12,"score_version":"0.14.0"}}