HERMES / CASE HERMES-20220219-1346

CASE FILE — HERMES-20220219-1346

WHO
Witnesses: yes together
Feeling: fine
WHAT
Description: [First seen] I was walking out my front door and there was a glowing white ball above the trees, it was mostly stationary, but was very overcast so I knew it wasn’t a star [What it did] It moved around hovering, glowing white and sparkling [How it ended] It just sat there and I had to leave for work
Shape: — · Color: — · Light character: —
Intensity: — · Duration: 5_30m · Behavior: —
WHEN
Date: 2022-02-19 13:46 HST
Submitted (UTC): 2026-05-04T18:55:44.454032
WHERE
Location: Dean Street, Palm Lake RV Park, Bonita Springs, Lee County, Florida, 34135, United States
Lat/Lon: 26.334817, -81.772531 (precision: exact)
Facing: 47.0° · Elevation angle: 39.0° · Elevation: — ft
WHY
Witness context: Nothing unusual
Weather: Partially cloudy · 76.8°F · wind 11.9 mph 285.0 · humidity 73.62%
Satellites overhead: 8 (['OSCAR 10', 'AMSAT OSCAR 40', 'ELEKTRO-L', 'BRITE-PL', 'CUBEBUG 2', 'RASSVET-2-1', 'RASSVET-2-2', 'RASSVET-2-3'])
Aircraft overhead: 25 (Live data only)
HOW
Camera: — · IR: — · Naked eye: yes
Intake schema version: v3

Observation

Date / Time2022-02-19 13:46 HST
LocationDean Street, Palm Lake RV Park, Bonita Springs, Lee County, Florida, 34135, United States
Coordinates26.334817, -81.772531
Observer elevation0.0 ft
Facing (bearing)47.0
Elevation angle39.0

Description

Color
Shape
Intensity
Light character
Duration5_30m
Witnessesyes together

Witness statement

[First seen] I was walking out my front door and there was a glowing white ball above the trees, it was mostly stationary, but was very overcast so I knew it wasn’t a star [What it did] It moved around hovering, glowing white and sparkling [How it ended] It just sat there and I had to leave for work

3D scene reconstruction deterministic, post-submit, no AI interpretation

This is a Sitrec reconstruction of the witness's stated viewpoint at the stated time. Witness position, facing, elevation angle, terrain, sky bodies, and ADS-B aircraft are placed deterministically from case fields. The described object itself is NOT rendered (perception is not measurable pose). Composed 2026-05-16T03:48:13Z.

Open scene full-screen  ·  sitch md5: ee2f64462d4e8bc0325fcde4cb98017b

Evidence Score

-0.27 Leans-Mundane score v0.14.0

The Evidence Score is -0.27 (Leans-Mundane). 4 rule(s) contributed, with the net weight indicating that one or more conventional explanations remain plausible for this case.

CONTRIBUTION LEDGER (17 rules)
Rule Bucket Verdict Raw Applied Reason
WX-CLOUD-01 weather flagged -0.100 -0.100 full
AC-DENSITY-01 aircraft flagged -0.120 -0.120 full
SAT-OVER-01 satellites indeterminate informational
SAT-LOS-01 satellites no_data informational
CEL-AVAIL-00 celestial no_data informational
CORR-01 corroboration passed +0.050 +0.050 full
GEO-DIST-01 geometry indeterminate informational
GEO-WITNESS-01 geometry flagged -0.100 -0.100 full
PROV-01 provenance passed informational
FP-01 fingerprint indeterminate informational
EXC-01 exclusion passed informational
EXC-02 exclusion flagged informational
AI-01 ai_signals passed informational:ai_signals
AI-02 ai_signals no_data informational:ai_signals
AI-03 ai_signals passed informational:ai_signals
AI-04 ai_signals passed informational:ai_signals
AI-05 ai_signals no_data informational:ai_signals

Score range [-1, +1]. Negative = conventional explanations plausible; positive = conventional explanations collectively weakened. Score is informational only. It does not identify or characterise the phenomenon. Score methodology →

Audit trail  methodology 0.16.0    generated 2026-06-09T06:19:14.656142Z

eliminated: 0 flagged: 4 indeterminate: 3 no data: 4
audit-hash: 2981E5DF111BEC1A

Each rule below shows its inputs, the data source queried, the result, and the verdict. Every rule has a stable ID so this case can be cited and replayed as the methodology evolves.

WEATHER

WX-CLOUD-01 v0.16.0

Cloud cover allows reflection/refraction

flagged
Cloud cover was 89%. Light from ground sources (searchlights, stadium lighting) can reflect off overcast and produce unusual appearances.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "observed_at": "2022-02-19 13:46",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Visual Crossing historical",
  "station_or_grid": "nearest-grid"
}
inputs
{
  "cloud_cover_pct": 88.9
}
result
{
  "overcast": true
}
confidence effect: -0.10

AIRCRAFT

AC-DENSITY-01 v0.16.0

High local air traffic

flagged
25 aircraft were operating within 50 nm at report intake. Commercial or general-aviation traffic is a plausible candidate and should be cross-referenced with historical ADS-B for the exact time.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "note": "ADS-B here is a live snapshot at report intake, not historical playback. Historical ADS-B backfill is planned (see changelog 0.5.0).",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "ADS-B live snapshot (50 nm radius, current)"
}
inputs
{
  "count": 25,
  "radius_nm": 50
}
result
{
  "aircraft_nearby": 25,
  "sample": [
    "WUP949@31125.0ft",
    "LXJ601@2100.0ft",
    "SWA369@30875.0ft",
    "N300EE@8325.0ft",
    "CAO1165@21000.0ft",
    "UAL2188@20850.0ft",
    "DAL1949@37000.0ft",
    "N148A@1575.0ft",
    "EJA464@1975.0ft",
    "N2827N@6500.0ft"
  ]
}
confidence effect: -0.12

SATELLITES

SAT-OVER-01 v0.16.0

Satellites in wide overhead cone

indeterminate
8 catalogued objects were in the wide overhead cone at intake time. Without the observer's look-direction and elevation, this is an availability count -- not an elimination. A TLE-based exact-line-of-sight check is planned.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "note": "Live snapshot at report intake, not historical propagation. TLE-based historical reconstruction is a planned upgrade.",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "N2YO /above endpoint (0-70 degrees elevation, 18 category)"
}
inputs
{
  "elevation_band_deg": "0-70"
}
result
{
  "count": 8,
  "notable_sample": [
    "OSCAR 10",
    "AMSAT OSCAR 40",
    "ELEKTRO-L",
    "BRITE-PL",
    "CUBEBUG 2",
    "RASSVET-2-1",
    "RASSVET-2-2",
    "RASSVET-2-3"
  ]
}
SAT-LOS-01 v0.16.0

Satellite line of sight (TLE-propagated)

no data
TLE cache stale (47.0 days old; max 7d)
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "note": "TLE age 1127.4h; catalog ?",
  "ok": false,
  "provider": "CelesTrak GP (stations + visual) via sgp4"
}
inputs
{
  "lat": 26.334817,
  "lon": -81.772531,
  "reported_az_deg": 47.0,
  "reported_el_deg": 39.0,
  "tolerances": null,
  "utc": "2022-02-19T13:46:00"
}
result
{
  "illumination": null,
  "match_count": null,
  "rule_hash": null,
  "satellites_above_horizon": null,
  "top_candidates": []
}

CELESTIAL BODIES

CEL-AVAIL-00 v0.16.0

Celestial computation availability

no data
Celestial computation did not run (missing or invalid timezone/timestamp). Moon, planet, and twilight checks were skipped.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "computed_at_utc": null,
  "ok": false,
  "provider": "ephem (PyEphem) local computation"
}
inputs
{
  "timezone": "HST"
}
result
{
  "ran": false
}

GEOMETRY

GEO-DIST-01 v0.16.0

Apparent-altitude ladder

indeterminate
For the reported elevation angle, Hermes computed the apparent object altitude at several candidate distances. Without an independent distance estimate, any single point on this ladder is plausible -- but the ladder as a whole shows what conventional explanations the geometry admits.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "trigonometric calc"
}
inputs
{
  "elevation_angle_deg": 39.0,
  "observer_elev_ft": 0.0
}
result
{
  "distance_vs_altitude_table": [
    {
      "altitude_ft": 13285,
      "distance_km": 5
    },
    {
      "altitude_ft": 26569,
      "distance_km": 10
    },
    {
      "altitude_ft": 66423,
      "distance_km": 25
    },
    {
      "altitude_ft": 132845,
      "distance_km": 50
    },
    {
      "altitude_ft": 265690,
      "distance_km": 100
    }
  ]
}
GEO-WITNESS-01 v0.16.0

Witness standpoint geometry

flagged
Witness standpoint geometry is absent and no alternative anchor is present (no EXIF GPS, no corroborating witness, no calibrated camera). Confidence effect: -10%. The optional map step on the intake form can provide this anchor.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "witness report + Hermes case data"
}
inputs
{
  "camera_calibrated": false,
  "corroborated": false,
  "exif_gps_present": false,
  "witness_geometry_present": false
}
result
{
  "excuses": {
    "camera_calibrated": false,
    "corroborated": false,
    "exif_gps": false
  },
  "geometry_present": false
}
confidence effect: -0.10

CORROBORATION

CORR-01 v0.16.0

Corroboration cluster (spatio-temporal)

passed
No corroborating reports within 30 min and 50 km (scanned 11 cases).
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "note": "scanned 11 cases",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes native case store"
}
inputs
{
  "lat": 26.334817,
  "lon": -81.772531,
  "tolerances": {
    "radius_km": 50.0,
    "window_min": 30
  },
  "when_utc": "2022-02-19T13:46:00"
}
result
{
  "cluster_size": 0,
  "matches": [],
  "nearest_km": null,
  "nearest_minutes": null,
  "rule_hash": "DD34984C49750AA6"
}
confidence effect: +0.05

FILE PROVENANCE

PROV-01 v0.16.0

Provenance record present

passed
Provenance record is present. SHA-256: d20f6ffd523b78a8... File: image/jpeg, 0 KB. Non-null fields: 13. C2PA: absent.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes media pipeline"
}
inputs
{
  "provenance_present": true
}
result
{
  "c2pa_present": false,
  "exif_gps_present": false,
  "file_size_bytes": 22,
  "mime_type": "image/jpeg",
  "non_null_fields": [
    "ai_signals",
    "bitrate_kbps",
    "c2pa",
    "codec",
    "container",
    "duration_seconds",
    "exif",
    "file_size_bytes",
    "fingerprint",
    "mime_type",
    "reencode_signals",
    "sha256",
    "upload_timestamp"
  ],
  "present": true,
  "sha256": "d20f6ffd523b78a86cd2f916fa34af5d1918d75f7b142237c752ad6b254213ab"
}

PERCEPTUAL FINGERPRINTING

FP-01 v0.16.0

Fingerprint recorded

indeterminate
Perceptual fingerprint is partially computed — error: PIL open failed: cannot identify image file '/opt/hermes/media/HERMES-20220219-1346/original/d20f6ffd523b78a86cd2f916fa34af5d1918d75f7b142237c752ad6b254213ab.jpg'. Frames hashed: 0. Fingerprint version: 1.0.0.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes fingerprint pipeline"
}
inputs
{
  "fingerprint_present": true
}
result
{
  "fingerprint_error": "PIL open failed: cannot identify image file \u0027/opt/hermes/media/HERMES-20220219-1346/original/d20f6ffd523b78a86cd2f916fa34af5d1918d75f7b142237c752ad6b254213ab.jpg\u0027",
  "fingerprint_version": "1.0.0",
  "frame_count": 0,
  "is_video": false,
  "present": true
}

KNOWN-OBJECT EXCLUSION

EXC-01 v0.16.0

Exclusion engine ran

passed
Exclusion engine ran. Catalogs: astronomical, adsb, satellites. Errors: weather. Total candidate matches: 1257. Location source: witness_area. Timestamp source: witness.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes exclusion engine"
}
inputs
{
  "exclusion_results_present": true
}
result
{
  "catalogs_errored": [
    "weather"
  ],
  "catalogs_queried": [
    "astronomical",
    "adsb",
    "satellites"
  ],
  "engine_version": "1.0.0",
  "envelope_center": {
    "lat": 26.334817,
    "lon": -81.772531
  },
  "fov_half_angle_deg": 90,
  "location_source": "witness_area",
  "ran": true,
  "timestamp_source": "witness",
  "total_matches": 1257
}
EXC-02 v0.16.0

Known-object candidate match

flagged
Exclusion engine found 1257 candidate match(es) in external catalogs. Surfaces candidate matches from external catalogs (ADS-B, satellites, astronomical, weather context). Does not exclude — analyst review required to confirm or reject any specific candidate. The presence of a match does not invalidate a sighting; the absence does not validate it. Top candidate: satellites / STARLINK-1046: az 159°, el 14°, 52888 km, sunlit, 97.6° from reported bearing; Starlink satellite — common visual false-positive as slow-moving train.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes exclusion engine"
}
inputs
{
  "total_matches": 1257
}
result
{
  "best_explanation": {
    "catalog": "satellites",
    "confidence_note": "az 159\u00b0, el 14\u00b0, 52888 km, sunlit, 97.6\u00b0 from reported bearing; Starlink satellite \u2014 common visual false-positive as slow-moving train",
    "object": "STARLINK-1046"
  },
  "catalogs_summary": {
    "adsb": 116,
    "astronomical": 0,
    "satellites": 1141,
    "weather": 0
  },
  "total_matches": 1257
}

AI-PROVENANCE SIGNALS

AI-01 v0.16.0

AI-provenance signal panel ran

passed
AI-provenance signal panel ran (v1.0.0). Signals with data: c2pa, codec_forensics, shadow_check. No signal claims a verdict on authenticity — each surfaces one independently-scored measurement for analyst review.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes AI-provenance pipeline"
}
inputs
{
  "ai_signals_present": true
}
result
{
  "panel_version": "1.0.0",
  "ran": true,
  "signals_ran": [
    "c2pa",
    "codec_forensics",
    "shadow_check"
  ]
}
AI-02 v0.16.0

C2PA result

no data
No C2PA Content Credentials manifest found in this file. Most consumer devices do not yet sign with C2PA. Absence is not evidence of AI generation or tampering.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "c2pa-python / Content Credentials"
}
inputs
{
  "c2pa_present": false,
  "c2pa_valid": null
}
result
{
  "manifest": null,
  "present": false,
  "valid": null
}
AI-03 v0.16.0

Codec forensics findings

passed
Codec forensics found no suspicious sub-signals. All four codec sub-signals (software_tag_suspicious, bitrate_suspicious, container_codec_mismatch, gop_anomaly) returned false.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes codec forensics (pure provenance)"
}
inputs
{
  "provenance_codec_fields": [
    "software_tag_suspicious",
    "bitrate_suspicious",
    "container_codec_mismatch",
    "gop_anomaly",
    "_forensics_version"
  ]
}
result
{
  "detail": {},
  "forensics_version": "1.0.0",
  "signals_fired": []
}
AI-04 v0.16.0

Sun-shadow geometry available

passed
Sun was below the horizon (elevation -6.01°, azimuth 260.66°) at the sighting time. No direct solar shadows expected; artificial light sources dominate. Shadow-direction analysis is not applicable for this case.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Skyfield + DE421 ephemeris"
}
inputs
{
  "location_source": "witness_area",
  "timestamp_source": "witness"
}
result
{
  "daytime": false,
  "expected_sun_azimuth_deg": 260.66,
  "expected_sun_elevation_deg": -6.01,
  "ran": true,
  "ran_reason": null,
  "sun_above_horizon": false,
  "timestamp_utc": "2022-02-19T23:46:00Z"
}
AI-05 v0.16.0

PRNU sensor-noise match

no data
PRNU sensor-noise check did not run: no camera record. When this check runs, it compares the sensor noise fingerprint from this upload against the calibrated reference for the registered camera. Match threshold: ≥ 0.05.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": false,
  "provider": "Hermes PRNU pipeline (numpy/Pillow)"
}
inputs
{
  "camera_prnu_available": false
}
result
{
  "correlation": null,
  "match": null,
  "prnu_fingerprint_sha256": null,
  "ran": false,
  "ran_reason": "no camera record",
  "threshold_correlation": 0.05
}