{"audit":{"audit_hash":"B27E18FA7F22C024","case_id":"HERMES-20220219-1346","confidence_effect_sum":-0.27,"counts":{"eliminated":0,"flagged":4,"indeterminate":3,"no_data":4,"passed":6},"disclaimers":["This audit trail lists each rule Hermes evaluated, the data it used, and the outcome. It is not a judgement about the underlying phenomenon.","Hermes is an analysis and triage platform. Confidence scores describe how thoroughly a case has been checked against conventional explanations, not how likely a given interpretation is to be true.","Live satellite and aircraft snapshots reflect intake time, not the exact sighting moment. Historical backfill (TLE propagation, historical ADS-B) is a pending methodology upgrade.","Witness-reported kinematics (hovering, acceleration, instantaneous turns) are preserved verbatim but not treated as instrumented measurements."],"generated_at_utc":"2026-06-09T07:46:52.946191Z","methodology_version":"0.16.0","rules":[{"category":"weather","confidence_effect":-0.1,"data_source":{"observed_at":"2022-02-19 13:46","ok":true,"provider":"Visual Crossing historical","station_or_grid":"nearest-grid"},"inputs":{"cloud_cover_pct":88.9},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Cloud cover allows reflection/refraction","plain_language":"Cloud cover was 89%. Light from ground sources (searchlights, stadium lighting) can reflect off overcast and produce unusual appearances.","references":[],"result":{"overcast":true},"rule_id":"WX-CLOUD-01","verdict":"flagged"},{"category":"aircraft","confidence_effect":-0.12,"data_source":{"note":"ADS-B here is a live snapshot at report intake, not historical playback. Historical ADS-B backfill is planned (see changelog 0.5.0).","ok":true,"provider":"ADS-B live snapshot (50 nm radius, current)"},"inputs":{"count":25,"radius_nm":50},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"High local air traffic","plain_language":"25 aircraft were operating within 50 nm at report intake. Commercial or general-aviation traffic is a plausible candidate and should be cross-referenced with historical ADS-B for the exact time.","references":[],"result":{"aircraft_nearby":25,"sample":["WUP949@31125.0ft","LXJ601@2100.0ft","SWA369@30875.0ft","N300EE@8325.0ft","CAO1165@21000.0ft","UAL2188@20850.0ft","DAL1949@37000.0ft","N148A@1575.0ft","EJA464@1975.0ft","N2827N@6500.0ft"]},"rule_id":"AC-DENSITY-01","verdict":"flagged"},{"category":"satellites","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"note":"Live snapshot at report intake, not historical propagation. TLE-based historical reconstruction is a planned upgrade.","ok":true,"provider":"N2YO /above endpoint (0-70 degrees elevation, 18 category)"},"inputs":{"elevation_band_deg":"0-70"},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Satellites in wide overhead cone","plain_language":"8 catalogued objects were in the wide overhead cone at intake time. Without the observer's look-direction and elevation, this is an availability count -- not an elimination. A TLE-based exact-line-of-sight check is planned.","references":[],"result":{"count":8,"notable_sample":["OSCAR 10","AMSAT OSCAR 40","ELEKTRO-L","BRITE-PL","CUBEBUG 2","RASSVET-2-1","RASSVET-2-2","RASSVET-2-3"]},"rule_id":"SAT-OVER-01","verdict":"indeterminate"},{"category":"satellites","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"note":"TLE age 1128.8h; catalog ?","ok":false,"provider":"CelesTrak GP (stations + visual) via sgp4"},"inputs":{"lat":26.334817,"lon":-81.772531,"reported_az_deg":47.0,"reported_el_deg":39.0,"tolerances":null,"utc":"2022-02-19T13:46:00"},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Satellite line of sight (TLE-propagated)","plain_language":"TLE cache stale (47.0 days old; max 7d)","references":[],"result":{"illumination":null,"match_count":null,"rule_hash":null,"satellites_above_horizon":null,"top_candidates":[]},"rule_id":"SAT-LOS-01","verdict":"no_data"},{"category":"celestial","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"computed_at_utc":null,"ok":false,"provider":"ephem (PyEphem) local computation"},"inputs":{"timezone":"HST"},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Celestial computation availability","plain_language":"Celestial computation did not run (missing or invalid timezone/timestamp). Moon, planet, and twilight checks were skipped.","references":[],"result":{"ran":false},"rule_id":"CEL-AVAIL-00","verdict":"no_data"},{"category":"corroboration","confidence_effect":0.05,"data_source":{"note":"scanned 11 cases","ok":true,"provider":"Hermes native case store"},"inputs":{"lat":26.334817,"lon":-81.772531,"tolerances":{"radius_km":50.0,"window_min":30},"when_utc":"2022-02-19T13:46:00"},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Corroboration cluster (spatio-temporal)","plain_language":"No corroborating reports within 30 min and 50 km (scanned 11 cases).","references":[],"result":{"cluster_size":0,"matches":[],"nearest_km":null,"nearest_minutes":null,"rule_hash":"DD34984C49750AA6"},"rule_id":"CORR-01","verdict":"passed"},{"category":"geometry","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"trigonometric calc"},"inputs":{"elevation_angle_deg":39.0,"observer_elev_ft":0.0},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Apparent-altitude ladder","plain_language":"For the reported elevation angle, Hermes computed the apparent object altitude at several candidate distances. Without an independent distance estimate, any single point on this ladder is plausible -- but the ladder as a whole shows what conventional explanations the geometry admits.","references":[],"result":{"distance_vs_altitude_table":[{"altitude_ft":13285,"distance_km":5},{"altitude_ft":26569,"distance_km":10},{"altitude_ft":66423,"distance_km":25},{"altitude_ft":132845,"distance_km":50},{"altitude_ft":265690,"distance_km":100}]},"rule_id":"GEO-DIST-01","verdict":"indeterminate"},{"category":"geometry","confidence_effect":-0.1,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"witness report + Hermes case data"},"inputs":{"camera_calibrated":false,"corroborated":false,"exif_gps_present":false,"witness_geometry_present":false},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Witness standpoint geometry","plain_language":"Witness standpoint geometry is absent and no alternative anchor is present (no EXIF GPS, no corroborating witness, no calibrated camera). Confidence effect: -10%. The optional map step on the intake form can provide this anchor.","references":[],"result":{"excuses":{"camera_calibrated":false,"corroborated":false,"exif_gps":false},"geometry_present":false},"rule_id":"GEO-WITNESS-01","verdict":"flagged"},{"category":"provenance","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"Hermes media pipeline"},"inputs":{"provenance_present":true},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Provenance record present","plain_language":"Provenance record is present. SHA-256: d20f6ffd523b78a8... File: image/jpeg, 0 KB. Non-null fields: 13. C2PA: absent.","references":[],"result":{"c2pa_present":false,"exif_gps_present":false,"file_size_bytes":22,"mime_type":"image/jpeg","non_null_fields":["ai_signals","bitrate_kbps","c2pa","codec","container","duration_seconds","exif","file_size_bytes","fingerprint","mime_type","reencode_signals","sha256","upload_timestamp"],"present":true,"sha256":"d20f6ffd523b78a86cd2f916fa34af5d1918d75f7b142237c752ad6b254213ab"},"rule_id":"PROV-01","verdict":"passed"},{"category":"fingerprint","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"Hermes fingerprint pipeline"},"inputs":{"fingerprint_present":true},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Fingerprint recorded","plain_language":"Perceptual fingerprint is partially computed \u2014 error: PIL open failed: cannot identify image file '/opt/hermes/media/HERMES-20220219-1346/original/d20f6ffd523b78a86cd2f916fa34af5d1918d75f7b142237c752ad6b254213ab.jpg'. Frames hashed: 0. Fingerprint version: 1.0.0.","references":[],"result":{"fingerprint_error":"PIL open failed: cannot identify image file '/opt/hermes/media/HERMES-20220219-1346/original/d20f6ffd523b78a86cd2f916fa34af5d1918d75f7b142237c752ad6b254213ab.jpg'","fingerprint_version":"1.0.0","frame_count":0,"is_video":false,"present":true},"rule_id":"FP-01","verdict":"indeterminate"},{"category":"exclusion","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"Hermes exclusion engine"},"inputs":{"exclusion_results_present":true},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Exclusion engine ran","plain_language":"Exclusion engine ran. Catalogs: astronomical, adsb, satellites. Errors: weather. Total candidate matches: 1257. Location source: witness_area. Timestamp source: witness.","references":[],"result":{"catalogs_errored":["weather"],"catalogs_queried":["astronomical","adsb","satellites"],"engine_version":"1.0.0","envelope_center":{"lat":26.334817,"lon":-81.772531},"fov_half_angle_deg":90,"location_source":"witness_area","ran":true,"timestamp_source":"witness","total_matches":1257},"rule_id":"EXC-01","verdict":"passed"},{"category":"exclusion","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"Hermes exclusion engine"},"inputs":{"total_matches":1257},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Known-object candidate match","plain_language":"Exclusion engine found 1257 candidate match(es) in external catalogs. Surfaces candidate matches from external catalogs (ADS-B, satellites, astronomical, weather context). Does not exclude \u2014 analyst review required to confirm or reject any specific candidate. The presence of a match does not invalidate a sighting; the absence does not validate it. Top candidate: satellites / STARLINK-1046: az 159\u00b0, el 14\u00b0, 52888 km, sunlit, 97.6\u00b0 from reported bearing; Starlink satellite \u2014 common visual false-positive as slow-moving train.","references":[],"result":{"best_explanation":{"catalog":"satellites","confidence_note":"az 159\u00b0, el 14\u00b0, 52888 km, sunlit, 97.6\u00b0 from reported bearing; Starlink satellite \u2014 common visual false-positive as slow-moving train","object":"STARLINK-1046"},"catalogs_summary":{"adsb":116,"astronomical":0,"satellites":1141,"weather":0},"total_matches":1257},"rule_id":"EXC-02","verdict":"flagged"},{"category":"ai_signals","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"Hermes AI-provenance pipeline"},"inputs":{"ai_signals_present":true},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"AI-provenance signal panel ran","plain_language":"AI-provenance signal panel ran (v1.0.0). Signals with data: c2pa, codec_forensics, shadow_check. No signal claims a verdict on authenticity \u2014 each surfaces one independently-scored measurement for analyst review.","references":[],"result":{"panel_version":"1.0.0","ran":true,"signals_ran":["c2pa","codec_forensics","shadow_check"]},"rule_id":"AI-01","verdict":"passed"},{"category":"ai_signals","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"c2pa-python / Content Credentials"},"inputs":{"c2pa_present":false,"c2pa_valid":null},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"C2PA result","plain_language":"No C2PA Content Credentials manifest found in this file. Most consumer devices do not yet sign with C2PA. Absence is not evidence of AI generation or tampering.","references":[],"result":{"manifest":null,"present":false,"valid":null},"rule_id":"AI-02","verdict":"no_data"},{"category":"ai_signals","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"Hermes codec forensics (pure provenance)"},"inputs":{"provenance_codec_fields":["software_tag_suspicious","bitrate_suspicious","container_codec_mismatch","gop_anomaly","_forensics_version"]},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Codec forensics findings","plain_language":"Codec forensics found no suspicious sub-signals. All four codec sub-signals (software_tag_suspicious, bitrate_suspicious, container_codec_mismatch, gop_anomaly) returned false.","references":[],"result":{"detail":{},"forensics_version":"1.0.0","signals_fired":[]},"rule_id":"AI-03","verdict":"passed"},{"category":"ai_signals","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"ok":true,"provider":"Skyfield + DE421 ephemeris"},"inputs":{"location_source":"witness_area","timestamp_source":"witness"},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"Sun-shadow geometry available","plain_language":"Sun was below the horizon (elevation -6.01\u00b0, azimuth 260.66\u00b0) at the sighting time. No direct solar shadows expected; artificial light sources dominate. Shadow-direction analysis is not applicable for this case.","references":[],"result":{"daytime":false,"expected_sun_azimuth_deg":260.66,"expected_sun_elevation_deg":-6.01,"ran":true,"ran_reason":null,"sun_above_horizon":false,"timestamp_utc":"2022-02-19T23:46:00Z"},"rule_id":"AI-04","verdict":"passed"},{"category":"ai_signals","confidence_effect":0.0,"data_source":{"ok":false,"provider":"Hermes PRNU pipeline (numpy/Pillow)"},"inputs":{"camera_prnu_available":false},"methodology_version":"0.16.0","name":"PRNU sensor-noise match","plain_language":"PRNU sensor-noise check did not run: no camera record. When this check runs, it compares the sensor noise fingerprint from this upload against the calibrated reference for the registered camera. Match threshold: \u2265 0.05.","references":[],"result":{"correlation":null,"match":null,"prnu_fingerprint_sha256":null,"ran":false,"ran_reason":"no camera record","threshold_correlation":0.05},"rule_id":"AI-05","verdict":"no_data"}]},"case_id":"HERMES-20220219-1346","evidence_score":{"anomalous_pct":36.5,"contributions":[{"applied_effect":-0.1,"bucket":"weather","raw_effect":-0.1,"reason":"full","rule_id":"WX-CLOUD-01","verdict":"flagged"},{"applied_effect":-0.12,"bucket":"aircraft","raw_effect":-0.12,"reason":"full","rule_id":"AC-DENSITY-01","verdict":"flagged"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"satellites","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"SAT-OVER-01","verdict":"indeterminate"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"satellites","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"SAT-LOS-01","verdict":"no_data"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"celestial","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"CEL-AVAIL-00","verdict":"no_data"},{"applied_effect":0.05,"bucket":"corroboration","raw_effect":0.05,"reason":"full","rule_id":"CORR-01","verdict":"passed"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"geometry","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"GEO-DIST-01","verdict":"indeterminate"},{"applied_effect":-0.1,"bucket":"geometry","raw_effect":-0.1,"reason":"full","rule_id":"GEO-WITNESS-01","verdict":"flagged"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"provenance","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"PROV-01","verdict":"passed"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"fingerprint","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"FP-01","verdict":"indeterminate"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"exclusion","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"EXC-01","verdict":"passed"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"exclusion","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational","rule_id":"EXC-02","verdict":"flagged"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"ai_signals","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational:ai_signals","rule_id":"AI-01","verdict":"passed"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"ai_signals","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational:ai_signals","rule_id":"AI-02","verdict":"no_data"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"ai_signals","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational:ai_signals","rule_id":"AI-03","verdict":"passed"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"ai_signals","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational:ai_signals","rule_id":"AI-04","verdict":"passed"},{"applied_effect":0.0,"bucket":"ai_signals","raw_effect":0.0,"reason":"informational:ai_signals","rule_id":"AI-05","verdict":"no_data"}],"excluded":[],"narrative":"The Evidence Score is -0.27 (Leans-Mundane).  4 rule(s) contributed, with the net weight indicating that one or more conventional explanations remain plausible for this case.","qualifier":"Leans-Mundane","score":-0.27,"score_version":"0.14.0"}}