HERMES / CASE HERMES-20260422-0247

CASE FILE — HERMES-20260422-0247

WHO
Witnesses: no
Feeling: shaken
WHAT
Description: [First seen] Bright orange light. [What it did] Hovered about 30 seconds, then shot sideways. [How it ended] Blinked out.
Shape: — · Color: — · Light character: —
Intensity: — · Duration: 10_60s · Behavior: —
WHEN
Date: 2026-04-22 02:47 CST
Submitted (UTC): 2026-04-23T20:31:50.886277
WHERE
Location: I-80 east of Ogallala, Nebraska
Lat/Lon: 41.128, -101.719 (precision: coarse)
Facing: 47.0° · Elevation angle: 32.0° · Elevation: — ft
WHY
Weather: Clear · 57.5°F · wind 3.4 mph 240.0 · humidity 39.75%
Satellites overhead: 5 (['NOAA 5', 'RADIO ROSTO', 'ELEKTRO-L', 'FOSSASAT2E21', 'W-SERIES 4'])
Aircraft overhead: — (Live data only)
HOW
Camera: — · IR: — · Naked eye: yes
Intake schema version: v2

Observation

Date / Time2026-04-22 02:47 CST
LocationI-80 east of Ogallala, Nebraska
Coordinates41.128, -101.719
Observer elevation0.0 ft
Facing (bearing)47.0
Elevation angle32.0

Description

Color
Shape
Intensity
Light character
Duration10_60s
Witnessesno

Witness statement

[First seen] Bright orange light. [What it did] Hovered about 30 seconds, then shot sideways. [How it ended] Blinked out.

3D scene reconstruction deterministic, post-submit, no AI interpretation

This is a Sitrec reconstruction of the witness's stated viewpoint at the stated time. Witness position, facing, elevation angle, terrain, sky bodies, and ADS-B aircraft are placed deterministically from case fields. The described object itself is NOT rendered (perception is not measurable pose). Composed 2026-05-16T03:48:13Z.

Open scene full-screen  ·  sitch md5: ed265d955d59c201b28ae84a36e3193b

Evidence Score

+0.18 Leans-Unexplained score v0.14.0

The Evidence Score is +0.18 (Leans-Unexplained). 5 rule(s) contributed, with the net weight indicating that checked conventional explanations are collectively weakened.

CONTRIBUTION LEDGER (13 rules)
Rule Bucket Verdict Raw Applied Reason
WX-CLOUD-01 weather eliminated +0.100 +0.100 full
WX-WIND-01 weather eliminated +0.050 +0.050 full
AC-DENSITY-01 aircraft eliminated +0.080 +0.080 full
SAT-OVER-01 satellites indeterminate — — informational
SAT-LOS-01 satellites no_data — — informational
CEL-AVAIL-00 celestial no_data — — informational
CORR-01 corroboration passed +0.050 +0.050 full
GEO-DIST-01 geometry indeterminate — — informational
GEO-WITNESS-01 geometry flagged -0.100 -0.100 full
PROV-01 provenance no_data — — informational
FP-01 fingerprint no_data — — informational
EXC-01 exclusion no_data — — informational
AI-01 ai_signals no_data — — informational:ai_signals

Score range [-1, +1]. Negative = conventional explanations plausible; positive = conventional explanations collectively weakened. Score is informational only. It does not identify or characterise the phenomenon. Score methodology →

Audit trail  methodology 0.16.0    generated 2026-06-09T06:11:31.319784Z

eliminated: 3 flagged: 1 indeterminate: 2 no data: 6
audit-hash: D54760DB83094F38

Each rule below shows its inputs, the data source queried, the result, and the verdict. Every rule has a stable ID so this case can be cited and replayed as the methodology evolves.

WEATHER

WX-CLOUD-01 v0.16.0

Cloud cover eliminates reflection/refraction

eliminated
Cloud cover was 0%. Clear sky makes cloud-based reflections or refractions an unlikely explanation for the sighting.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "observed_at": "2026-04-22 02:47",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Visual Crossing historical",
  "station_or_grid": "nearest-grid"
}
inputs
{
  "cloud_cover_pct": 0.0
}
result
{
  "clear_sky": true
}
confidence effect: +0.10
WX-WIND-01 v0.16.0

Low wind eliminates buoyancy drift

eliminated
Surface wind was 3 mph. Sky lanterns and free balloons drift visibly in wind above ~10 mph, so low wind makes buoyant-object explanations less persuasive unless the object was observed to drift.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "observed_at": "2026-04-22 02:47",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Visual Crossing historical",
  "station_or_grid": "nearest-grid"
}
inputs
{
  "wind_mph": 3.4
}
result
{
  "calm": true
}
confidence effect: +0.05

AIRCRAFT

AC-DENSITY-01 v0.16.0

Low local air traffic

eliminated
Only 0 aircraft were operating within 50 nm at report intake. Commercial traffic is not a strong candidate, though historical ADS-B backfill is still recommended for definitive exclusion.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "note": "ADS-B here is a live snapshot at report intake, not historical playback. Historical ADS-B backfill is planned (see changelog 0.5.0).",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "ADS-B live snapshot (50 nm radius, current)"
}
inputs
{
  "count": 0,
  "radius_nm": 50
}
result
{
  "aircraft_nearby": 0
}
confidence effect: +0.08

SATELLITES

SAT-OVER-01 v0.16.0

Satellites in wide overhead cone

indeterminate
5 catalogued objects were in the wide overhead cone at intake time. Without the observer's look-direction and elevation, this is an availability count -- not an elimination. A TLE-based exact-line-of-sight check is planned.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "note": "Live snapshot at report intake, not historical propagation. TLE-based historical reconstruction is a planned upgrade.",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "N2YO /above endpoint (0-70 degrees elevation, 18 category)"
}
inputs
{
  "elevation_band_deg": "0-70"
}
result
{
  "count": 5,
  "notable_sample": [
    "NOAA 5",
    "RADIO ROSTO",
    "ELEKTRO-L",
    "FOSSASAT2E21",
    "W-SERIES 4"
  ]
}
SAT-LOS-01 v0.16.0

Satellite line of sight (TLE-propagated)

no data
TLE cache stale (47.0 days old; max 7d)
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "note": "TLE age 1127.2h; catalog ?",
  "ok": false,
  "provider": "CelesTrak GP (stations + visual) via sgp4"
}
inputs
{
  "lat": 41.128,
  "lon": -101.719,
  "reported_az_deg": 47.0,
  "reported_el_deg": 32.0,
  "tolerances": null,
  "utc": "2026-04-22T02:47:00"
}
result
{
  "illumination": null,
  "match_count": null,
  "rule_hash": null,
  "satellites_above_horizon": null,
  "top_candidates": []
}

CELESTIAL BODIES

CEL-AVAIL-00 v0.16.0

Celestial computation availability

no data
Celestial computation did not run (missing or invalid timezone/timestamp). Moon, planet, and twilight checks were skipped.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "computed_at_utc": null,
  "ok": false,
  "provider": "ephem (PyEphem) local computation"
}
inputs
{
  "timezone": "CST"
}
result
{
  "ran": false
}

GEOMETRY

GEO-DIST-01 v0.16.0

Apparent-altitude ladder

indeterminate
For the reported elevation angle, Hermes computed the apparent object altitude at several candidate distances. Without an independent distance estimate, any single point on this ladder is plausible -- but the ladder as a whole shows what conventional explanations the geometry admits.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "trigonometric calc"
}
inputs
{
  "elevation_angle_deg": 32.0,
  "observer_elev_ft": 0.0
}
result
{
  "distance_vs_altitude_table": [
    {
      "altitude_ft": 10251,
      "distance_km": 5
    },
    {
      "altitude_ft": 20502,
      "distance_km": 10
    },
    {
      "altitude_ft": 51255,
      "distance_km": 25
    },
    {
      "altitude_ft": 102510,
      "distance_km": 50
    },
    {
      "altitude_ft": 205020,
      "distance_km": 100
    }
  ]
}
GEO-WITNESS-01 v0.16.0

Witness standpoint geometry

flagged
Witness standpoint geometry is absent and no alternative anchor is present (no EXIF GPS, no corroborating witness, no calibrated camera). Confidence effect: -10%. The optional map step on the intake form can provide this anchor.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "witness report + Hermes case data"
}
inputs
{
  "camera_calibrated": false,
  "corroborated": false,
  "exif_gps_present": false,
  "witness_geometry_present": false
}
result
{
  "excuses": {
    "camera_calibrated": false,
    "corroborated": false,
    "exif_gps": false
  },
  "geometry_present": false
}
confidence effect: -0.10

CORROBORATION

CORR-01 v0.16.0

Corroboration cluster (spatio-temporal)

passed
No corroborating reports within 30 min and 50 km (scanned 11 cases).
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "note": "scanned 11 cases",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes native case store"
}
inputs
{
  "lat": 41.128,
  "lon": -101.719,
  "tolerances": {
    "radius_km": 50.0,
    "window_min": 30
  },
  "when_utc": "2026-04-22T02:47:00"
}
result
{
  "cluster_size": 0,
  "matches": [],
  "nearest_km": null,
  "nearest_minutes": null,
  "rule_hash": "E8F04C312792FF1C"
}
confidence effect: +0.05

FILE PROVENANCE

PROV-01 v0.16.0

Provenance record present

no data
No provenance record is attached to this case. Either no media was uploaded, or this case was submitted before the v0.10.0 provenance pipeline was active. Backfill is a planned future operation.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes media pipeline"
}
inputs
{
  "provenance_present": false
}
result
{
  "present": false
}

PERCEPTUAL FINGERPRINTING

FP-01 v0.16.0

Fingerprint recorded

no data
No perceptual fingerprint is attached to this case. Either no media was uploaded, or this case was submitted before the v0.11.0 fingerprint pipeline was active. Backfill is a planned operator-triggered task.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes fingerprint pipeline"
}
inputs
{
  "fingerprint_present": false
}
result
{
  "present": false
}

KNOWN-OBJECT EXCLUSION

EXC-01 v0.16.0

Exclusion engine ran

no data
The exclusion engine has not run on this case. Either no media was uploaded, or the case lacks sufficient grounding (usable timestamp and location). See EXC-01 preconditions for details.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes exclusion engine"
}
inputs
{
  "exclusion_results_present": false
}
result
{
  "ran": false,
  "reason": "no exclusion_results on case"
}

AI-PROVENANCE SIGNALS

AI-01 v0.16.0

AI-provenance signal panel ran

no data
The AI-provenance signal panel has not run on this case. Either no media has been uploaded or provenance extraction failed.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes AI-provenance pipeline"
}
inputs
{
  "ai_signals_present": false
}
result
{
  "ran": false,
  "reason": "no ai_signals on provenance record"
}