HERMES / CASE HERMES-20190101-0011

CASE FILE — HERMES-20190101-0011

WHO
Witnesses: yes together
Feeling: fine
WHAT
Description: [First seen] My friend and I were outside watching the fireworks, and he noticed a white glowing ball above the trees. It was big, like a basketball, it didn’t have any flashing lights, it was like a light, like a street light in the sky, it was to the north of the fireworks we were watching. [What it did] So we continue to watch the fireworks for four or five minutes and this thing was still there so we started walking closer towards it still watching the fireworks and it moved a bit so I pulled out my phone and started recording and then it started to fly away like it was aware of me, recording it because it didn’t start to really move until I pulled the camera out and hit the record button and then these lights that were blue appeared out of the trees behind a house and it went towards them. I continued to follow up with the camera and myself, and then all those weird glistening happened and it disappeared and flew away. [How it ended] It flew away either into the blue glistening light or away into the trees back towards. There’s a river back there. The people who own the house I know quite well. I spoke to them the next day and they told me they didn’t have a drone didn’t know anything about any of it and there’s no lights on the side of their house back there so they don’t know what it was and that they didn’t see or hear anything themselves except for the fireworks. They were down on the first floor watching TV.
Shape: — · Color: — · Light character: —
Intensity: — · Duration: 5_30m · Behavior: —
WHEN
Date: 2019-01-01 00:11 HST
Submitted (UTC): 2026-05-04T18:27:38.164546
WHERE
Location: 27777, Quinn Street, Palm Lake RV Park, Bonita Springs, Lee County, Florida, 34135, United States
Lat/Lon: 26.334451, -81.75901 (precision: exact)
Facing: 260.0° · Elevation angle: 35.0° · Elevation: — ft
WHY
Witness context: It was New Years Eve and there were fireworks
Weather: Clear · 67.9°F · wind 2.1 mph 77.0 · humidity 87.08%
Satellites overhead: 4 (['OSCAR 10', 'AMSAT OSCAR 40', 'ELEKTRO-L', 'ICEYE-X56'])
Aircraft overhead: 19 (Live data only)
HOW
Camera: — · IR: — · Naked eye: yes
Intake schema version: v3

Observation

Date / Time2019-01-01 00:11 HST
Location27777, Quinn Street, Palm Lake RV Park, Bonita Springs, Lee County, Florida, 34135, United States
Coordinates26.334451, -81.75901
Observer elevation0.0 ft
Facing (bearing)260.0
Elevation angle35.0

Description

Color
Shape
Intensity
Light character
Duration5_30m
Witnessesyes together

Witness statement

[First seen] My friend and I were outside watching the fireworks, and he noticed a white glowing ball above the trees. It was big, like a basketball, it didn’t have any flashing lights, it was like a light, like a street light in the sky, it was to the north of the fireworks we were watching. [What it did] So we continue to watch the fireworks for four or five minutes and this thing was still there so we started walking closer towards it still watching the fireworks and it moved a bit so I pulled out my phone and started recording and then it started to fly away like it was aware of me, recording it because it didn’t start to really move until I pulled the camera out and hit the record button and then these lights that were blue appeared out of the trees behind a house and it went towards them. I continued to follow up with the camera and myself, and then all those weird glistening happened and it disappeared and flew away. [How it ended] It flew away either into the blue glistening light or away into the trees back towards. There’s a river back there. The people who own the house I know quite well. I spoke to them the next day and they told me they didn’t have a drone didn’t know anything about any of it and there’s no lights on the side of their house back there so they don’t know what it was and that they didn’t see or hear anything themselves except for the fireworks. They were down on the first floor watching TV.

3D scene reconstruction deterministic, post-submit, no AI interpretation

This is a Sitrec reconstruction of the witness's stated viewpoint at the stated time. Witness position, facing, elevation angle, terrain, sky bodies, and ADS-B aircraft are placed deterministically from case fields. The described object itself is NOT rendered (perception is not measurable pose). Composed 2026-05-16T03:48:13Z.

Open scene full-screen  ·  sitch md5: e2c601a6ccd072519750064a9dd4bc9d

Evidence Score

-0.02 Inconclusive score v0.14.0

The Evidence Score is -0.02 (Inconclusive). 5 rule(s) contributed non-zero weight, but the positive and negative signals roughly balance, leaving the case inconclusive.

CONTRIBUTION LEDGER (13 rules)
Rule Bucket Verdict Raw Applied Reason
WX-CLOUD-01 weather eliminated +0.100 +0.100 full
WX-WIND-01 weather eliminated +0.050 +0.050 full
AC-DENSITY-01 aircraft flagged -0.120 -0.120 full
SAT-OVER-01 satellites indeterminate — — informational
SAT-LOS-01 satellites no_data — — informational
CEL-AVAIL-00 celestial no_data — — informational
CORR-01 corroboration passed +0.050 +0.050 full
GEO-DIST-01 geometry indeterminate — — informational
GEO-WITNESS-01 geometry flagged -0.100 -0.100 full
PROV-01 provenance no_data — — informational
FP-01 fingerprint no_data — — informational
EXC-01 exclusion no_data — — informational
AI-01 ai_signals no_data — — informational:ai_signals

Score range [-1, +1]. Negative = conventional explanations plausible; positive = conventional explanations collectively weakened. Score is informational only. It does not identify or characterise the phenomenon. Score methodology →

Audit trail  methodology 0.16.0    generated 2026-06-09T06:09:58.789033Z

eliminated: 2 flagged: 2 indeterminate: 2 no data: 6
audit-hash: 52FE6CAED9EB94CF

Each rule below shows its inputs, the data source queried, the result, and the verdict. Every rule has a stable ID so this case can be cited and replayed as the methodology evolves.

WEATHER

WX-CLOUD-01 v0.16.0

Cloud cover eliminates reflection/refraction

eliminated
Cloud cover was 0%. Clear sky makes cloud-based reflections or refractions an unlikely explanation for the sighting.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "observed_at": "2019-01-01 00:11",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Visual Crossing historical",
  "station_or_grid": "nearest-grid"
}
inputs
{
  "cloud_cover_pct": 0.0
}
result
{
  "clear_sky": true
}
confidence effect: +0.10
WX-WIND-01 v0.16.0

Low wind eliminates buoyancy drift

eliminated
Surface wind was 2 mph. Sky lanterns and free balloons drift visibly in wind above ~10 mph, so low wind makes buoyant-object explanations less persuasive unless the object was observed to drift.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "observed_at": "2019-01-01 00:11",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Visual Crossing historical",
  "station_or_grid": "nearest-grid"
}
inputs
{
  "wind_mph": 2.1
}
result
{
  "calm": true
}
confidence effect: +0.05

AIRCRAFT

AC-DENSITY-01 v0.16.0

High local air traffic

flagged
19 aircraft were operating within 50 nm at report intake. Commercial or general-aviation traffic is a plausible candidate and should be cross-referenced with historical ADS-B for the exact time.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "note": "ADS-B here is a live snapshot at report intake, not historical playback. Historical ADS-B backfill is planned (see changelog 0.5.0).",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "ADS-B live snapshot (50 nm radius, current)"
}
inputs
{
  "count": 19,
  "radius_nm": 50
}
result
{
  "aircraft_nearby": 19,
  "sample": [
    "GTI8986@19650.0ft",
    "MXY795@3950.0ft",
    "N500ZH@450.0ft",
    "EJA274@18450.0ft",
    "N914SW@3700.0ft",
    "N6042F@2500.0ft",
    "HGHWY9@3200.0ft",
    "N234EL@33525.0ft",
    "AAL1454@30000.0ft",
    "N17ZC@4950.0ft"
  ]
}
confidence effect: -0.12

SATELLITES

SAT-OVER-01 v0.16.0

Satellites in wide overhead cone

indeterminate
4 catalogued objects were in the wide overhead cone at intake time. Without the observer's look-direction and elevation, this is an availability count -- not an elimination. A TLE-based exact-line-of-sight check is planned.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "note": "Live snapshot at report intake, not historical propagation. TLE-based historical reconstruction is a planned upgrade.",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "N2YO /above endpoint (0-70 degrees elevation, 18 category)"
}
inputs
{
  "elevation_band_deg": "0-70"
}
result
{
  "count": 4,
  "notable_sample": [
    "OSCAR 10",
    "AMSAT OSCAR 40",
    "ELEKTRO-L",
    "ICEYE-X56"
  ]
}
SAT-LOS-01 v0.16.0

Satellite line of sight (TLE-propagated)

no data
TLE cache stale (47.0 days old; max 7d)
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "note": "TLE age 1127.2h; catalog ?",
  "ok": false,
  "provider": "CelesTrak GP (stations + visual) via sgp4"
}
inputs
{
  "lat": 26.334451,
  "lon": -81.75901,
  "reported_az_deg": 260.0,
  "reported_el_deg": 35.0,
  "tolerances": null,
  "utc": "2019-01-01T00:11:00"
}
result
{
  "illumination": null,
  "match_count": null,
  "rule_hash": null,
  "satellites_above_horizon": null,
  "top_candidates": []
}

CELESTIAL BODIES

CEL-AVAIL-00 v0.16.0

Celestial computation availability

no data
Celestial computation did not run (missing or invalid timezone/timestamp). Moon, planet, and twilight checks were skipped.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "computed_at_utc": null,
  "ok": false,
  "provider": "ephem (PyEphem) local computation"
}
inputs
{
  "timezone": "HST"
}
result
{
  "ran": false
}

GEOMETRY

GEO-DIST-01 v0.16.0

Apparent-altitude ladder

indeterminate
For the reported elevation angle, Hermes computed the apparent object altitude at several candidate distances. Without an independent distance estimate, any single point on this ladder is plausible -- but the ladder as a whole shows what conventional explanations the geometry admits.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "trigonometric calc"
}
inputs
{
  "elevation_angle_deg": 35.0,
  "observer_elev_ft": 0.0
}
result
{
  "distance_vs_altitude_table": [
    {
      "altitude_ft": 11487,
      "distance_km": 5
    },
    {
      "altitude_ft": 22974,
      "distance_km": 10
    },
    {
      "altitude_ft": 57435,
      "distance_km": 25
    },
    {
      "altitude_ft": 114869,
      "distance_km": 50
    },
    {
      "altitude_ft": 229738,
      "distance_km": 100
    }
  ]
}
GEO-WITNESS-01 v0.16.0

Witness standpoint geometry

flagged
Witness standpoint geometry is absent and no alternative anchor is present (no EXIF GPS, no corroborating witness, no calibrated camera). Confidence effect: -10%. The optional map step on the intake form can provide this anchor.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "witness report + Hermes case data"
}
inputs
{
  "camera_calibrated": false,
  "corroborated": false,
  "exif_gps_present": false,
  "witness_geometry_present": false
}
result
{
  "excuses": {
    "camera_calibrated": false,
    "corroborated": false,
    "exif_gps": false
  },
  "geometry_present": false
}
confidence effect: -0.10

CORROBORATION

CORR-01 v0.16.0

Corroboration cluster (spatio-temporal)

passed
No corroborating reports within 30 min and 50 km (scanned 11 cases).
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "note": "scanned 11 cases",
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes native case store"
}
inputs
{
  "lat": 26.334451,
  "lon": -81.75901,
  "tolerances": {
    "radius_km": 50.0,
    "window_min": 30
  },
  "when_utc": "2019-01-01T00:11:00"
}
result
{
  "cluster_size": 0,
  "matches": [],
  "nearest_km": null,
  "nearest_minutes": null,
  "rule_hash": "BC5CD076FE45BBC4"
}
confidence effect: +0.05

FILE PROVENANCE

PROV-01 v0.16.0

Provenance record present

no data
No provenance record is attached to this case. Either no media was uploaded, or this case was submitted before the v0.10.0 provenance pipeline was active. Backfill is a planned future operation.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes media pipeline"
}
inputs
{
  "provenance_present": false
}
result
{
  "present": false
}

PERCEPTUAL FINGERPRINTING

FP-01 v0.16.0

Fingerprint recorded

no data
No perceptual fingerprint is attached to this case. Either no media was uploaded, or this case was submitted before the v0.11.0 fingerprint pipeline was active. Backfill is a planned operator-triggered task.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes fingerprint pipeline"
}
inputs
{
  "fingerprint_present": false
}
result
{
  "present": false
}

KNOWN-OBJECT EXCLUSION

EXC-01 v0.16.0

Exclusion engine ran

no data
The exclusion engine has not run on this case. Either no media was uploaded, or the case lacks sufficient grounding (usable timestamp and location). See EXC-01 preconditions for details.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes exclusion engine"
}
inputs
{
  "exclusion_results_present": false
}
result
{
  "ran": false,
  "reason": "no exclusion_results on case"
}

AI-PROVENANCE SIGNALS

AI-01 v0.16.0

AI-provenance signal panel ran

no data
The AI-provenance signal panel has not run on this case. Either no media has been uploaded or provenance extraction failed.
Show inputs data source raw result
data source
{
  "ok": true,
  "provider": "Hermes AI-provenance pipeline"
}
inputs
{
  "ai_signals_present": false
}
result
{
  "ran": false,
  "reason": "no ai_signals on provenance record"
}